Abstract

The purpose of the study is to develop an efficient spending strategy through the long-term fiscal outlook in Seoul. Seoul faces many problems that must be addressed as it enters the low-growth era of low fertility, aging, declining growth engines, and polarization of income. Therefore, it is necessary to resolve the anxiety about the coming future and make efforts to raise the equity of generational burden. The long-term financial outlook for Seoul's future financial needs provides an important starting point for this endeavor and an important basis for discussing the future situation. Especially, to prepare for the increase of financial burden on low fertility and aging, that is accompanied by the phenomenon of population cliff, it is time to make efforts to expand the tax base in addition to the effective expenditure of the social welfare sector. As a result, the long-term financial prospect can provide a driving force for policies that can rationally and efficiently promote policies to prepare for the future. This long-term financial prospect is critical as a starting point for establishing financial conditions that can guarantee the minimum quality of life to be enjoyed as a human being.

As a result of the long-term financial analysis, the total revenues of the city of Seoul in 2040 were estimated at 40-49 trillion won, and the total expenditure was 46-52 trillion won. The long-term financial outlook of major spending in Seoul shows that social welfare spending is approximately 21.4 trillion won in 2040, approximately 1 trillion won in job spending, and approximately 3 trillion won in SOC spending.

Policy directions and strategies related to social welfare, jobs, and SOC spending are as follows. The main strategies of the social welfare sector are: 1) The need for virtuous welfare investment in growth and distribution; 2) The design and expansion of welfare policy based on income; and 3) The reorganization of expenditure strategies for financial efficiency. For this, it is necessary to revise the income guarantee system to cope with poverty, to construct the income floor through income-led growth, to systematically manage illegal supply and demand, and to review and adjust the standard subsidy rate. The main policy directions for the job are: 1) Expansion and restructuring of the spending of the job, 2) Enhancement of the effectiveness of the spending of the project, and 3) Strengthening of the vocational training for the 4th industrial revolution. To this end, it is necessary to restructure financial expenditure from direct jobs to indirect jobs, to allocate budgets for jobs based on demand and performance, and to provide vocational training and start-up support considering machine and human collaboration. The major policy directions of the SOC are as follows: First, the upgrading of the SOC system in Seoul and second, the clear prioritization of infrastructure projects. To this end, it is necessary to replace aged facilities, install infrastructure supporting the future industry, systematically manage infrastructure investment, and expand the scope.

Contents

01 Introduction

1_Background and Purpose of the Study

2_Main Contents and Research Methods

02 Long-Term Local Finance Outlook in Seoul

1_Long-Term Outlook of National Finance

2_Framework for the Establishment of Long-Term Outlook Model and Prediction Method for Long-Term Local Finance Outlook in Seoul

3_Total Revenue Outlook for Seoul

4_Total Expenditure Outlook for Seoul

03 Financial Expenditure Outlook and Policy Direction of Social Welfare in Seoul

1_Status and Evaluation of Financial Expenditure in the Social Welfare Sector in Seoul

2_Financial Expenditure Outlook of Social Welfare in Seoul

3_Policy Direction of Social Welfare Spending in Seoul

04 Financial Expenditure Outlook and Policy Direction of Job in Seoul

1_Status and Evaluation of Financial Expenditure in the Job in Seoul

2_Financial Expenditure Outlook of Social Welfare in the Job in Seoul

3_Policy Direction of Social Welfare Spending in the Job in Seoul