Seoul is facing growing concerns over socio-economic imbalances due to a continuous trend of ultra-low birth rates and significant demographic changes. As of 2023, Seoul’s total fertility rate stood at 0.55, significantly below the national average of 0.72, and it is projected to enter a super-aged society with over 20% of its population aged 65 or older by 2026. These demographic shifts also include a decline in the number of population, an influx of people in their 20s followed by an outflow of those in their 30s and 40s, and changes in household structures, including diversification and downsizing. Such changes are expected to lead to declines in productivity, stagnation of economic growth, increased social burdens, and necessary adjustments to urban space and infrastructure. To address these challenges, Seoul formulated the “Seoul Metropolitan Government Basic Population Policy Plan (2024–2028)” to integrate population perspectives into its policies.
Population policy is defined as the formal intervention in demographic-related social, economic, and cultural changes and their interactions (Park Jong-Seo et al., 2022). It is categorized into two types: (1) policies aiming to improve demographic indicators and (2) policies that view demographic changes as preconditions and adapt to mitigate their socio-economic negative impacts. Key types of population policies include birth control, population dispersion, and adaptation to low birth rates and aging populations. Seoul’s population policy development can be divided into three phases: the initial phase (2005–2019), the expansion phase with targeted approaches for each demographic category, including responses to low birth rates, aging population, youth, foreigners, and single-person households (2020–), and the comprehensive policy implementation phase starting in 2024.
Impact assessments have been introduced across various sectors to evaluate the wide-ranging effects of policies, with the aim of minimizing negative impacts and enhancing effectiveness. In South Korea, dozens of types of impact assessments exist, each differing in purpose, scope, methods, and consequences of results. Demographic impact assessments have been considered several times from different perspectives. Since the 2020s, regional governments like Gyeonggi Province and Busan have independently introduced demographic impact assessments. By reviewing cases such as experts’ criticisms of the policy evaluation system for the Basic Plan on Low Fertility and Aging Society, the self-assessment system of the German federal and local governments that evaluates government policies and civil servants’ awareness of demographic change, and the social impact assessment system that tracks the entire policy implementation process to examine its effects in depth, valuable insights were gained regarding the diverse functions and flexible evaluation methods that the Seoul Population Impact Assessment can pursue.
Through theoretical analysis and case studies, this study identifies key considerations for designing an effective population impact assessment system. First, six primary functions and objectives are proposed: (1) improving existing policies, (2) approving policy implementation, (3) establishing policy directions and strategies, (4) assessing awareness and education of public officials, (5) enhancing demographic policy coordination and execution, and (6) monitoring demographic indicators and developing a database. Second, regarding evaluating methods, a broad and flexible approach is necessary due to the diverse nature of policy areas. A multi-faceted evaluation framework, consisting of multiple strategies tailored to different objectives, is recommended to achieve meaningful outcomes. Third, the practical use and benefits of evaluation results must be considered, considering existing multiple other evaluation systems and their limited enforceability. Based on these insights, the study proposes seven evaluation measures categorized into four functional areas: education of public officials, policy improvement, in-depth research, and monitoring, with a detailed examination of the application, and strength and weakness of each.
The proposed demographic impact assessment is not a fixed evaluation method but a comprehensive framework aimed at supporting effective demographic policy implementation and ultimately improving citizens’ quality of life. Not limited in a narrow concept of demographic policies, this approach encompasses all policies that require adaptation to demographic changes. Two major strategies include (A) Foundation Building and (B) Responses on Key Demographic Change. Foundation Building consists of (A-1) Human Resource Development for awareness and education, (A-2) Establishing Data Infrastructure for regular monitoring and analysis, and (A-3) Pre-evaluation of new policy planning from demographic perspectives. Responses on Key Demographic Change includes (B-1) Strategy Development for major demographic challenges and (B-2) Effectiveness Analysis for evaluating and refining key policies. Additionally, the necessity of establishing legal and governance frameworks to ensure the implementation of the demographic impact assessment system in Seoul was suggested.